Treasury yields mostly lower as rally takes a pause ahead of Jackson Hole

U.S. Treasury yields were higher at the long end of the curve on Wednesday as investors assess the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was just over 2 basis points lower at 4.3063%, a welcome reprieve after hitting a 16-year high on Tuesday, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell more than 3 basis points to 4.3771%. Yields move inversely to prices. At the shorter end of the curve, yields were marginally higher.

The surge in 10-year yields to their highest level since November 2007 came as investors grappled with a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy and the possibility that inflation sticks around, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the conclusion of the two-day symposium in Wyoming on Friday, with a slew of central bank officials due to give remarks before that.

Investors will be watching closely for clues about the trajectory of the economy and its implication for monetary policy, in the hope that the Fed’s last rate increase at its July meeting would mark the end of a rate-hiking campaign that began in early March 2022.

Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin struck a hawkish tone on Tuesday, reiterating that the Fed needs to defend the 2% inflation target to preserve its credibility with the public.

“We have one big weapon and that is credibility,” Barkin said to the Danville Pittsylvania County Chamber of Commerce. “There is nothing magic about 2 except that when you set that as a target you probably want to achieve it.”

On the data front, S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ index readings for August are due at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday before July’s new home sales figures at 10 a.m.

Auctions will be held for $50 billion of 17-week Treasury bills and $16 billion of 20-year bonds, along with £24 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).