Oil prices hold firm after rally as OPEC sticks to demand and steady economic growth forecasts

Energy
Tuesday, June 11th, 2024 6:36 pm EDT

Key Points

  • Crude oil futures held steady on Tuesday as OPEC maintained its demand forecasts, relying on steady economic growth projections for the year.
  • Oil prices surged over 2% on Monday, marking the best day for U.S. crude oil since February 8th and nearly recovering from last week’s four-month lows following OPEC+’s decision to increase crude production in October.
  • Today’s energy prices include West Texas Intermediate at $77.93 per barrel, Brent at $82.02 per barrel, RBOB Gasoline at $2.41 per gallon, and Natural Gas at $3.05 per thousand cubic feet, all showing various degrees of increase.

Crude oil futures maintained their gains on Tuesday as OPEC stood by its demand forecasts, anticipating steady economic growth for the year. After rallying more than 2% on Monday, U.S. crude oil prices marked their best performance since February 8th, nearly recovering from last week’s dip to four-month lows following OPEC+’s decision to increase crude production in October. West Texas Intermediate for July contracts traded at $77.93 per barrel, up by 25 cents or 0.32%, with U.S. oil gaining 8.9% year-to-date. Similarly, Brent for August contracts stood at $82.02 per barrel, up by 39 cents or 0.48%, with the global benchmark advancing 6.5% year-to-date. RBOB Gasoline for July contracts rose to $2.41 per gallon, a 0.33% increase, with gasoline showing a 15% year-to-date uptick, while Natural Gas for July contracts reached $3.05 per thousand cubic feet, up by 5%, marking a 21% year-to-date advance. OPEC’s monthly report projects oil demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day for 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025, alongside global economic growth estimates of 2.8% for this year and 2.9% for 2025. The group anticipates stable momentum in the services sector, particularly in travel and tourism, which is expected to positively impact oil demand in the second half of the year. Analysts note that traders seem to be “buying the dip” after many investors abandoned long positions post-OPEC+ decision, with net long positions in Brent dropping by 69% week-over-week to the lowest levels since 2014. Despite last week’s bearish sentiment, Goldman Sachs predicts a market deficit in summer fuel demand that could push Brent back up to $86 per barrel in the third quarter. Traders are awaiting the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. inflation data for May on Wednesday, alongside the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report.

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