Energy
Friday, August 11th, 2023 3:00 am EDT
The U.S. government is deploying trillions of dollars of stimulus money into infrastructure investments, boosting the prospects for a number of industrials in the Club portfolio. On the back of Covid’s impact on the economy, President Joe Biden enacted a slew of domestic funding bills in a bid to help the nation recover from labor constraints and financial losses due to the pandemic. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, commonly known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, was signed in late 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act, also referred to as IRA, became law in August 2022. Since being enacted, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act was slated to send $1 trillion over the span of five years to states and local governments for upgrading outdated roads, bridges and transit systems — projects that use the products and services provided buy our leading industrial names Caterpillar (CAT), whose stock has soared since June and trades around record highs. Looking ahead, Caterpillar also stands to benefit from a second wave of government spending when federal dollars from the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act, designed to fund manufacturing and infrastructure investments, are released into the pipeline. Club names Honeywell (HON) and Emerson Electric (EMR) might also grab some of the IRA’s funding for green energy. Emerson has been on a roll since June. As for Honeywell, it mounted a comeback from the spring and into the summer but then fell on hard times after the company issued disappointing financial results late last month. Wall Street cheered the influx of funding. Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner said that the increased spending forced the bank to make a “sizable upward revision” to its estimates for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). “The economy in the first half of the year is growing much stronger than we had anticipated, putting a more comfortable cushion under our long-held soft landing view,” she wrote in a July note. As a result , Morgan Stanley estimates GDP growth for the first half of 2023 at 1.9% — nearly four times its previous forecast — and bumped up forecasts for real GDP growth next year at 1.4%. “The narrative behind the numbers tells the story of industrial strength in the U.S.,” Zentner added. Crediting the enormous amount of government stimulus, BlackRock’s Larry Fink said the U.S. will not tip into a recession in 2023. “Think about how many jobs infrastructure creates. Think about the demand for commodities as we build infrastructure,” the chief of the world’s largest asset management firm previously told CNBC . CAT YTD mountain Caterpillar YTD performance Caterpillar can thank the influx of stimulus for its blowout second-quarter results on Aug. 1, beating analysts’ estimates for revenue and earnings and sparking a much-deserved rally that day of nearly 9% to an all-time closing high of $288.65 per share. Construction sales surged 19% to $7.15 billion for the quarter, “driven by the impact from changes in dealer inventories and higher sales of equipment to end users,” Caterpillar said. Gains were linked to a boost in demand for construction equipment because of the “once in a generation” Infrastructure bill. In last week’s conference after the earnings release, CEO Jim Umpleby said the firm expects “continued growth in nonresidential construction in North America due to the positive impact of government-related infrastructure investments and a healthy pipeline of construction projects.” “I remain convinced that federal largesse will fall into the lap of Club holding Caterpillar, and it’s wrong to ignore what will be a gusher into American-made earth-moving equipment and steel,” Jim Cramer wrote in an Investing Club column back in April. Caterpillar is the biggest maker of earth-moving equipment in the U.S. Shortly after Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings release, we boosted our CAT price target to $300 per share from $285. We kept our 2-rating at the time in deference to its surge. On Aug. 7, we took some profit s but still believe in the stock. HON YTD mountain Honeywell YTD performance Before the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill was enacted, Honeywell said in July 2021 that it would likely lead to “long-term economic growth ,” a dynamic playing out two years later as the government money begins to make its way to companies that make the industrial products, heavy equipment and machinery needed for these large-scale projects. While its Q2 results were not as robust as Caterpillar’s quarter, Honeywell did provide several reasons for optimism including a strong overall segment profit margin that helped the bottom line outperform and robust cash flow performance. Nevertheless, HON shares sank more than 5.5% on earnings day July 27, and they have only advanced three sesions out of the past nine. Honeywell’s crack at really benefitting from government spending may come when green energy programs funded by Inflation Reduction Act kick into gear. The stimulus, in part, provides production and investment tax credits for renewable projects. In a July note, Bank of America listed Honeywell as one of the stocks that stand to gain from the IRA because of the company’s relation to renewable power systems. EMR YTD mountain Emerson Electric YTD performance In a March note, Morgan Stanley analyst Josh Pokrzywinski upgraded industrial automation provider Emerson Electric to buy from hold, citing a growth in sales between 4% and 5% annually, in line with the industrials economy. Since the IRA gives companies new incentives for hydrogen use, the analysts say Emerson’s business is likely to benefit from that as well. The company is a leading provider of hydrogen solutions and automation. After being derailed by uncertainty around the friendly, then hostile, then friendly National Instruments (NATI) deal, Emerson shares have been making up ground. The National Instruments transaction is expected to close in the first half of next year. Last week’s release of strong fiscal third-quarter results and a guidance raise further boosted Emerson’s stock. Sales at the company’s two operating units beat estimates its fiscal third quarter: Intelligent Devices rose by nearly 11% to $3.95 billion and Software & Control increased nearly 22% to $983 million. The results are another example of how Emerson’s efforts to re-orient its portfolio around automation have helped its customers with their own energy transition initiatives in the areas of the aforementioned hydrogen space as well as liquified natural gas (LNG), nuclear, carbon capture, and renewables. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CAT, EMR, HON. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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The U.S. government is deploying trillions of dollars of stimulus money into infrastructure investments, boosting the prospects for a number of industrials in the Club portfolio.
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