Oil prices fall for fourth session in five as U.S. pushes for Gaza cease-fire

Energy
Monday, August 19th, 2024 2:30 pm EDT

Key Points

  • Crude Oil Prices Decline: Crude oil futures fell for the fourth time in five days on Monday due to concerns over softening demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped to $76.11 per barrel, while Brent crude fell to $79.15 per barrel.
  • Geopolitical and Demand Concerns: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel pushing for a cease-fire deal to end the Gaza conflict and secure hostages, with talks scheduled to continue in Cairo. Despite these geopolitical concerns, weak demand signals, particularly from China, are affecting oil prices.
  • Market Sentiment and Outlook: The oil market is currently influenced by a combination of factors including geopolitical risks and demand fundamentals. Analysts predict a bearish outlook for crude oil due to slowing economic activity, weak demand in Asia, and declining refinery margins.

Crude oil futures experienced a decline for the fourth time in five days on Monday, largely due to concerns over weakening demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently in Israel, where he emphasized the urgency of achieving a cease-fire to end the ongoing conflict in Gaza and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas. Cease-fire negotiations are set to continue in Cairo this week, adding a layer of uncertainty to oil market dynamics.

The prices for key energy commodities on Monday included West Texas Intermediate crude at $76.11 per barrel, down 0.7%, and Brent crude at $79.15 per barrel, off 0.67%. Despite these declines, U.S. crude has seen a 6.22% gain year-to-date, while Brent is up 2.75%. Gasoline prices remained relatively stable, while natural gas prices increased slightly by 1%, though they are down 14.6% year-to-date.

Market sentiment is being influenced by weak economic data from China and concerns about global demand. Analysts suggest that geopolitical risks are currently not significantly impacting supply, leading traders to focus more on demand-side factors. According to Brian Leisen from RBC Capital Markets, the outlook for crude prices is negative in the medium term due to slowing economic activity, weak demand in Asia, and declining refinery margins.

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