Biotech
Saturday, March 23rd, 2024 1:31 am EDT
Key Points
- Falling fertility rates projected to lead to a significant demographic shift over the next 25 years, with profound implications for the global economy.
- By 2050, approximately three-quarters of countries are expected to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female, with 49 countries, mainly in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, responsible for the majority of new births.
- The demographic changes will have wide-ranging impacts on social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical aspects, particularly concerning shrinking workforces in advanced economies, necessitating political and fiscal intervention. While high-income countries witness declining birth rates, low-income countries continue to experience rising birth rates, contributing to the shifting demographic landscape and highlighting the need for fair migration policies amid increasing exposure to climate change effects.
A recent study published in The Lancet medical journal reveals that falling fertility rates are poised to trigger a significant demographic transformation over the next quarter-century, with far-reaching implications for the global economy. By 2050, an estimated three-quarters of countries are projected to fall below the population replacement birth rate of 2.1 babies per female, a trend predominantly observed in low-income regions of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Consequently, these areas are expected to account for the majority of new births. The report underscores the profound impact of these demographic shifts on international relations, geopolitical dynamics, migration patterns, and global aid networks. By 2100, only six countries, including Chad, Niger, Samoa, and Tajikistan, are anticipated to maintain population-replacing birth rates, further accentuating the changing demographic landscape. This demographic transition is anticipated to have wide-ranging social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical ramifications, particularly concerning shrinking workforces in advanced economies. Dr. Christopher Murray, one of the report’s lead authors, emphasizes the need for political and fiscal intervention to address workforce declines, compounded by advances in technology such as artificial intelligence and robotics. Despite the absence of a specific economic impact figure in the study, it highlights the growing divergence between high-income and low-income countries in terms of birth rate trends. While birth rates have been steadily declining in high-income countries due to factors like increased female workforce participation and political measures, low-income countries continue to experience rising birth rates. The global fertility rate is projected to decrease further from 1.83 to 1.59 by 2100, even as the global population is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. This shift underscores the significance of sub-Saharan Africa in driving future population growth, accounting for half of all new births by the turn of the century. As countries navigate these demographic changes, particularly in the face of climate change, poorer nations may find themselves in a stronger bargaining position to negotiate fairer migration policies, according to Murray.
For the full original article on CNBC, please click here: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/22/falling-fertility-rates-pose-major-challenges-for-the-global-economy.html
