Biotech
Monday, December 18th, 2023 3:31 pm EDT
Key Points
Rapid Growth and Potential of Weight Loss Drug Market:
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- Weight loss drugs gained significant attention in 2023, proving popular as effective treatments despite high costs, varying insurance coverage, and some side effects.
- Anticipation for continued growth in 2024 is high, with Wall Street predicting the market to reach $100 billion by the end of the decade, and an expected 15 million U.S. adults on obesity medications by 2030.
Challenges and Opportunities for Dominant Players (Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly):
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- Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key players in the weight loss drug market, face supply issues in 2024, particularly with drugs like Wegovy, Ozempic, and Mounjaro.
- Despite these challenges, both companies are expected to have a significant year, seeking expanded approvals for existing drugs and releasing new data showcasing potential health benefits beyond weight loss and diabetes management.
Emerging Competitors and Market Dynamics:
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- Pfizer and Amgen, along with potential buyouts and collaborations, could reshape the competitive landscape in the weight loss drug market.
- Supply constraints are a major concern, but analysts believe improvements will occur in 2024, though a comprehensive resolution may take years.
- The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming data releases, including trials and potential approvals for drugs like Zepbound and Wegovy, which may influence market dynamics and insurers’ coverage decisions. Additionally, the article discusses the possibility of larger pharmaceutical companies seeking external partnerships or acquisitions to enter or strengthen their position in the weight loss drug market.
The weight loss drug market experienced significant growth in 2023, driven by the popularity of drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound, which helped patients lose substantial weight. Despite high prices, mixed insurance coverage, and some side effects, demand for these drugs is expected to continue in 2024, with analysts projecting the market to be worth $100 billion by the end of the decade. Goldman Sachs anticipates 15 million U.S. adults on obesity medications by 2030.
In the coming year, attention will focus on how key players, including Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, address supply issues affecting drugs like Wegovy, Ozempic, and Mounjaro. Analysts foresee improvements in supply constraints in 2024, although the broader issue may take years to resolve. Novo Nordisk aims to expand Wegovy’s use in the U.S. and Europe, while Eli Lilly’s Zepbound is expected to achieve blockbuster status with projected sales of $2.2 to $2.7 billion in 2024.
Both companies are poised to release new data showcasing potential health benefits beyond weight loss and diabetes management, possibly increasing insurance coverage. Pfizer and Amgen are also entering the weight loss drug space, with Pfizer aiming for a $10 billion market share. Pfizer’s once-a-day version of its obesity pill, danuglipron, faces scrutiny over tolerability issues, and upcoming data in 2024 will determine its viability.
Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, which demonstrated a 20% reduction in serious heart problems in a trial, could see expanded use for heart health pending U.S. and European regulatory approvals. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, expected to cause more weight loss than Wegovy, might become a blockbuster drug.
Supply issues are anticipated to be a key focus in 2024, with Novo Nordisk investing in expanding manufacturing facilities to address constraints. Additionally, collaborations, buyouts, and partnerships may reshape the competitive landscape, as seen with Roche’s acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics and AstraZeneca’s licensing agreement with Eccogene. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have acquired smaller obesity drug companies to maintain dominance, and more such moves are expected in the coming year. Small to mid-cap weight loss drugmakers may seek partnerships or acquisitions to compete with industry leaders.
For the full original article on CNBC, please click here: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/17/weight-loss-drugs-2024-expectations-for-wegovy-ozempic-zepbound.html
